NEW DELHI (AFP) - As the Dalai Lama reflected Sunday on a surprise Chinese offer to resume talks, experts cautioned that Beijing may be looking more toward salvaging the Olympic Games than meaningful dialogue. 法新社新德里报道:达赖喇嘛对于中国方面突然提出的会谈进行了正面的回应。但是专家指出,北京很可能并不会进行实质性的会谈,他们只不过希望通过会谈来抢救奥运会。
The Tibetan spiritual leader recognised as much, saying as he returned this weekend to his exile home in India that while "talk is good," a meeting aimed merely at appeasing international opinion would be "meaningless." 西藏精神领袖也意识到了这一点。在他回到在印度的流亡的家中说,能够会谈固然是好事,但如果仅仅是为了迎合国际压力的话这个会谈就会毫无意义。
He outlined what he was seeking: "serious discussions about how to reduce Tibetan resentment and a thorough discussion" of the problems in Tibet. 他希望双方能够认真的进行会谈,通过完整的会谈来减少西藏人们的怨恨。
China's talks offer is a sign Beijing feels it must respond to the intense global pressure over its crackdown in the remote Himalayan region after last month's deadly anti-Chinese riots, analysts agree. 中国方面提供的邀请是北京对国际社会压力的一种回应。分析人士认为北京上个月对于偏僻的喜马拉雅地区的镇压已经引起了非常大的舆论关注。
But they warn that China is more concerned about avoiding a possible Games boycott and ending the embarrassing pro-Tibet protests that have disrupted the Olympic torch's round-the-world journey toward Beijing. 不过分析人士也指出,北京只是关注可能出现的奥运抵制和在圣火传递过程中支持西藏的示威活动。
"The Chinese haven't made any concession," said Brahma Chellaney an analyst at the New Delhi-based Centre for Strategic Studies thinktank. 新德里的战略研究智库的Brahma Chellaney指出中国还没有做出任何的让步。
"Their primary interest is to see the Olympics conclude" successfully. 他的目的只不过是想看到奥运会能够顺利的结束。
China has held six rounds of inconclusive talks with special envoys of the Dalai Lama since 2002. Experts do not believe a new round is likely to yield any more gains for Tibetans.中国从2002年开始已经举行了六轮会谈。专家不认为新一轮的会谈能够给西藏人取得任何
"The Chinese government is not sincere or else something would have come of the six rounds held so far," said Srikanth Kondapalli, associate professor of Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. 新德里Jawaharlal Nehru大学的中国问题研究专家Srikanth Kondapalli 说到目前为止的六轮会谈中中国政府从来没有认真对待过。
"The latest offer of talks is nothing new," Kondapalli added. Kondapalli补充说,新一轮的会谈也没有什么新意。
"What is new is the pressure mounted on China with Tibetan protests, which have unnerved them. The Olympics were supposed to be a coming out party for China in terms of its rise, but now many athletes and leaders are thinking of boycotting the Games." 如果说有什么新的东西,就是中国是在外界压力的作用下答应会谈的。奥运会被中国看做崛起过程中一次大Party,但是现在已经有不少领导人和运动员打算抵制他。
The Tibet protests broke out in the regional capital Lhasa and appeared to target Han Chinese who have been encouraged to migrate to the region. 拉萨的藏人对那些被鼓励到西藏的汉人进行了抗议活动。
Initially taken by surprise, Chinese authorities launched a crackdown that exiled Tibetan leaders say left more than 150 people dead. Beijing says no one died as it restored order but that Tibetan rioters killed 20. 西藏流亡政权领导人说中国镇压过程中有150人死亡。而北京方面则说没有死人,反而是有20名无辜群众在骚乱中丧生。
It ignited protests that, notably in London and Paris, severely disrupted the ambitious torch relay for a Games that Beijing had hoped would underline its growing status on the world stage. 抗议者们破坏了北京悉心准备的火炬传递活动,尤其是在伦敦和巴黎,这让这个想要在国际舞台上起主导作用的大国不满。
"This outcome is a victory of the concerted pressure on the Chinese," said Sukh Deo Muni, senior visiting fellow at the Singapore Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. 新加坡的东南亚研究所的高级研究人员Sukh Deo Muni说,这次会谈是对中国施压的一次胜利。
"They don't want these pressures to spoil their Olympic parade." 他们不希望这些外界的压力破坏奥运,他说。
The Dalai Lama has been persistent but soft-spoken in his rhetoric, urging dialogue while denouncing violence, pushing for autonomy not independence, and saying he supports Beijing hosting the Olympics. 达赖喇嘛有所坚持但是也有所让步,他建议对话反对暴力,推动自治反对独立,支持北京奥运。
"They really deserve" the Olympics, the 72-year-old spiritual leader said earlier this month. "In spite of the unfortunate events in Tibet, my position has not changed." 这名七十二岁的精神领袖这个月早些时候说,尽管在西藏发生了很多不幸的事件,我还是认为他们值得这场奥运,我的立场没有改变。
Beijing depicts him as someone bent on independence, sabotaging religious order and fomenting unrest -- charges renewed in weekend newspaper editorials despite the offer of talks. 进行官方同意对华,但是在周末的报纸中对达赖的指控仍没有松动,北京方面说他倾向独立,破坏宗教秩序,并且煽动犯罪。
"The Tibetans have achieved a tactical success in pressuring the Chinese to agree to talks," Kondapalli added, "but there is no way that Tibetans can get autonomy." Kondapalli说,能够让中国方面同意对华已经是个相当大的胜利了,期望北京方面同意自治是没门的。
Worse, he told AFP, "it's a strategic loss for Tibet, as the divide between Han Chinese and Tibetans will only grow." 他说,让汉人和藏人之间分裂开来只会让西藏的情况更糟。
Still, the talks offer was broadly welcomed around the world as at least a step forward, and Chellaney, of New Delhi's Centre for Strategic Studies, said it would keep Tibet in the spotlight. 新德里战略研究中心的Chellaney说至少这场会谈能够让让西藏仍在聚光灯下。
"Everything they have done has boomeranged," he said. 他是他们所作的所有事只不过是回飞棒。
"Who would have thought two months ago that Tibet would be at the centre of international attention?" 两个月前谁能想到西藏会成为世界舆论的焦点呢。
He said the outpouring of Tibetan anger had surprised Beijing, and unless there was a genuine reconciliation process, the sensitive issue "will come to haunt" Beijing. 他说西藏人的愤怒已经震惊了北京。除非有真正的进步,这个敏感的问题会一直骚扰北京。